The World Citrus Organization releases its first production forecast

The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has released its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming citrus season (2024-25). The Forecast was released on the occasion of the 2024-2025 Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast Outlook, organized on 15 November by WCO. The Forecast is based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, the United States, and, for the first time, Portugal. The Forecast shows that citrus production is estimated at 27.297.216 T, which represents an 8,73% decrease compared to the previous season. The 2024/2025 Forecast is also 5,88% lower than the average of the last four seasons.

 WCO, the World Citrus Organisation, released on 15 November its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming season (2024-25). The preliminary Forecast is based on data from industry associations from the Mediterranean region and the United States. Citrus production for 2024/2025 is estimated at 27.297.216 T, an 8,73% decrease compared to the previous season. Total citrus exports are expected to follow a similar trend at 8.379.831 T, down by 8,94% from last season and 9,78% from the last four seasons’ average.

Philippe Binard, WCO Secretary General, summarised the outcome of the Forecast: “The market insights we received indicate a decrease from last year’s high volumes. This is mainly driven by Turkey returning to regular production levels after last season’s record figures as well as Egypt’s expected decrease.” He added: “Climatic issues, such as late frost, drought, heat waves, or new pests and diseases are constant threats to the quality, coloring, or harvest date for the production. The market will still be impacted by geopolitical instability while consumer demand is under pressure due to limitation of purchasing power and inflation.”

Looking at the country-specific figures for the largest producers in the EU, Spain’s citrus production at 6,18 MT is down by 3,30% from the previous seasons, led by the 21,01% decrease in lemons from last year’s record season. The dramatic weather events in Spain are not expected to have a significant impact on the overall supply, which overall remains as predicted. Italy is down by 12,32% at 2,77 MT, with a 17,51% decline in oranges, while Greece remains stable at 1,09 MT. In the other Mediterranean countries, Turkey is set to decrease its production by 17,57% with 4,95 MT, after last season’s record figures. Egypt at 4,35 MT is down by 19,55% from 2023/2024. Morocco’s production, on the other hand, is expected to grow to 2,14 MT (+11,97%). Israel’s production is also estimated to recover to 0,56 MT (+18,50%). Portugal, which contributed to the Forecast for the first time, estimates a 3,37% decrease in the upcoming season (0,38 MT in total). The production in the United States is expected to shrink to 4,55 MT (-4,28%), continuing to decrease compared to the average of the previous seasons (-11,52%).

Philippe Binard added: “WCO is also setting some trends for the expected utilization of citrus for the upcoming season. The Northern Hemisphere citrus exports will decrease by 8,94% compared to last season to 8,38 MT, while processing will decline to 5,16 MT (-4,15%), leaving 13,76 MT for domestic sales (-10,21%.). Next April, the WCO will release the 2025 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere.

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